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中国全面超越日本:日本专家哀叹又回到千年前

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发表于 2017-10-1 17:25:36 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
    在很多人的思维里,日本仍然是高大上一般的存在。日本产品似乎自带属性要比中国产品好。在这种谄媚的思想之下,各种自媒体间渲染着对日本工业制造和日本经济的崇拜。

    可睁眼看世界,中国早已不是昔日的中国,而在历经失去的一个又一个十年之后,日本也正在被中国超越。首先我们随便列举几个行业来对比一下,日本制造是否还是高不可攀?又或者日本经济是不是真的有什么奥秘和神话?

   

    高铁轨道交通

    曾经高铁技术是日本的一张名片,从中国中学地理教材里对“新干线”的介绍到2000年风靡中国的动漫《铁胆火车侠》,中国人曾经对日本新干线充满着羡慕。可不到20年时间,中国高铁完成了对日本新干线的超越。

    去年中国已经占据了世界高铁市场的近7成,而日本的川崎重工和日立仅占据不到一成的市场。尽管印度近期和日本打得火热,并引进日本新干线技术。可我们对于印度与日本的这一次合作持谨慎乐观的态度,并非是我们对于新干线技术的不信任,而是日本人所找的这个客户在制造领域确实有很多不大好的“案底”。

    从土耳其高铁、印尼雅万高铁、巴西里约奥运轻轨项目到美国波士顿地铁机车制造到成功打入欧洲市场,中国高铁轨道交通正在攻城略地,而日本仍抱着“新干线”的旧梦无可奈何。

   

    新干线

    日本或许没想到:昔日的国家教案新干线在高铁面前变得暗淡无光

    战后日本造船业稳坐世界第一近50年,可随着中国与韩国造船业的崛起,日本造船业迅速衰落。如今的造船业已经是中国与韩国的天下,甚至连韩国都再和中国的竞争中深感吃力。

    中船重工和中国船舶两个大型船企逼得三菱重工裁员,而日本船企所占市场份额不到世界10%。如果不是来自日本海上自卫队的订单,日本造船业的大规模倒闭和裁员将不可避免,可来自日本海上自卫队的订单又能有多少?能和中国海军下饺子般的“食欲”大么?

    既然谈到了军工,那就不得不提军工业。严格意义上讲,受制于战后和平宪法的限制,日本军工只能满足于本国需求不得外销。尽管安倍晋三上台后试图修宪并向印度出口US-2两栖飞机打破现状。三菱重工、川崎重工、东芝一干日本企业也进入了世界军工100强,不过这些企业如果指望自卫队那点可怜的订单,根本就难以生存。

    不要认为日本只是受制于和平宪法无法出口武器,因为劳动力成本和技术含量等原因,日本军工产品的吸引力其实很低。

    中国军工我们自然不用多说,哪怕是世界军工100强当中没有一个中国企业(保密性和集团化原因),但依靠完整的军工体系和高性价比,世界军售市场我们已经仅次于美俄排到了世界第三。

   

    珠海航展上的歼-20

    中国人对日本家电业有独特的感情。在物质供应并不算丰富的七八十年代,松下东芝等品牌的家电是耐用和可靠的选择,是中国老百姓梦寐以求的神级装备。可如今,中国家电三巨头格力、海尔、美的在完成国内家电市场份额的瓜分时,还不断向海外进军。

    甚至是一些中小企业,依靠价格和质量也能打出一片天地。而日本家电企业,仅存的优势无非就是点陈芝麻烂谷子的企业文化,可是心灵鸡汤能当饭吃么?

    311大地震后,日本辛苦经营多年的核电品牌和企业形象因为“福岛核电站事故”瞬间崩塌,日本全球百大创新企业的日立公司的核电技术,在和中国中核集团的海外竞赛中全面处于下风。

   

    中英核项目

    中国先后拿下阿根廷和英国核电项目,特别是英国欣克利角核电站高达数百亿英镑的投资堪称世界最昂贵核电站项目。在福岛核电站仍然存在核泄漏的问题之下,恐怕没有哪个国家敢用日本的核电技术吧?(三哥除外)

    在笔记本行业,日本已经彻底溃败,全球前五已经看不到日本企业,日本NEC的笔记本电脑已经被中国联想收购。2016年联想不仅在全球市场占有21%的市场份额,在日本本土,联想电脑占有接近30%的市场份额,和VAIO富士通东芝三家日系企业加起来市场份额差不多。是的,以前中国人习惯在本土看到索尼和东芝笔记本,现在已经基本看不到了。现在日本人已经习惯在本土看到联想。

    手机制造业是一个市场超过5000亿美元并且仍在不断快速增大的大蛋糕,可我们却难以发现日本手机制造企业的身影。全球手机制造业除了苹果和三星外,中国品牌几乎占据了市场的半壁江山。从华为和小米风靡欧美就能看出,中国手机制造业已经颇具国际竞争力。而日本几乎没有拿得出手的手机和品牌。索尼?频频传出破产丑闻的索尼什么都想做,可是在手机这一行,没有中国代工技术和研发能力,日本人只能提供下零件罢了。

    中国的航天产业已经是一张国家名片,很多指标都与美俄不相上下。可以说中美俄三国的航天已经自成世界第一集团,而尚未实现载人航天的日本或许还有很长的路要走。

    而中国则利用航天优势建立起来的北斗卫星导航系统正在挑战GPS在国际上的市场份额和地位,中国已经发射了23颗北斗导航卫星,2015年北斗导航系统产值已经接近300亿美元,中国A股已经有了数家北斗产业相关公司,2016年已经有4万多艘船装上了北斗终端系统,2020年会进一步爆发性成长,而日本20年内不会有自主卫星导航系统。

    航天产业,中国C919打飞机完成了试飞,ARJ-21早已取得了适航证。日本民航工业独立自己还得问美国爹同意不同意。至于军事航空业,在歼-20面前,“心神”不过像一架玩具飞机而已。

   

    C919

    日本缘何正被中国超越?

    为何如今的中国被世界刮目相看,甚至连日本都为之羡慕?特别是在不久的将来,中国经济将全面超越日本,虽然其原因虽然复杂,但是有几点是显而易见的。

    首先,中日两国的基本国情摆在那里。即使在饱受外国侵略和工业化进程滞后的近代中国,经济总量仍将日本远远抛在后面。光是东北三省单列出来也能和当时的日本一较高下。

    资源贫乏、地少人多都制约了日本经济的发展。而中国丰富的资源、广袤的国土是日本永远无法所具备的优势。日本也曾尝试过改变这种局面,不过妄想通过战争谋求领土扩张和资源掠夺的行为,终于还是遭到了正义的惩罚。

    当然,中国能有如今的成就并不是靠山吃山就能取得的。新中国成立后,中国利用社会主义制度优势和人力优势迅速完成了工业体系的建立,而改革开放抓住发展机遇和赶上互联网迅速发展的中国则完成了弯道超车。从1978年算起,中国改革开放不到40年。

    之所以取得如今的成就,我们不得不承认又人口红利、规模经济给中国带来的巨大优势。之所以中国有今天如此的成就,不同的人群有不同的解读。

   

    国产智能机器人

    可是历经了风雨沧桑的近代屈辱之后,曾经落后于世界的中国只不过是在追赶世界的脚步。中国要追赶的对象也并不是日本,而是其背后的超级大国。中国只不过是在恢复自己昔日的地位,超越日本只是道路上的一道风景,而非终点。

    日本的将来取决于中国

    尽管日本经济正在被中国全面超越,而本身日本的发展也面临着诸多难题,但日本仍然是经济总量居世界第三的经济大国。如今的日本在工业制造和科技研发水平上仍居世界前列。对中国而言,日本尚且还有学习和利用的价值。

    从日本的经济是脆弱不堪的,为何?二战战败后的日本已经不是一个政治与军事大国,这种跛脚的经济是在美国庇护之下日渐发展起来的。而一个国家在国际经济体系中的地位并非只是单纯的各项经济指标与数据的衡量,而是综合国力的比拼与较量。依靠来自美国的影响力,日本确实能够在资本主义经济体系中占据一角,可如今已经不是过去美欧独领全球经济的局面了。

    “金砖国家”、“亚非拉世界”的潜力要远远高于已经成熟的美欧市场。而日本经济要想扩大在亚非拉地区的市场,就不得不看来自中国的脸色。中国在亚非拉地区的影响力不仅仅体现在遍地的中国产品上,从基础设施建设到军队国防体系完善,很多亚非拉国家甚至“全套引进”中国制造。

    日本如今将海外拓展市场瞄向亚非拉地区,可在中国面前,日本产品没有了价格和技术优势。从高铁到造船,从食品到基建,日本在亚非拉地区寸步难行。而反过来,当日本想继续保持在美欧高端市场的优势之时,却发现中国人正在侵蚀他们的市场。

    自上世纪70年代初中日邦交正常化以来,日本依靠在地缘和文化上的优势在中国市场狠赚了一笔,长期以来日本企业都是中国人的老师。可如今日本的优势正在丧失,这并不是什么稀奇的事情。

    有着“日本战略之父”之称的大前研一曾表示:“日本要重新适应日本国力只有中国10%的状况,日本要有准确衡量邻国中国的规模感。从过去2000年的历史看,日本国力的规模一直是中国的10%。”的确,从过去的数千年历史上来看,日本无论是从经济、政治、文化上来看都只是中华文化圈的吸收这和学习者,中日之间只不过正在完成历史位置的“复位”。

    如果日本还想继续得到发展,就应该向过去数千年以来所做的一样:老老实实在一旁坐好,明白自己的学徒身份。
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