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特朗普为什么迟迟不对中国出手

2017-2-7 22:04| 发布者: ctk3| 查看: 1027| 评论: 0|原作者: 宋鲁郑

特朗普上任半月有余,就以其旺盛的精力、好斗的精神、超乎想象的效率开始兑现其竞选承诺。只是令全球不解的是,直到现在,特朗普猛烈的炮火都没有指向选举期间屡屡被他当作攻击目标的中国。这一幕大大超过西方所谓的战略预言家的预测。

我还记得,特朗普当选后,英国《金融时报》采访中国学者、经济学教授魏尚进,其标题就是:“中国会成为特朗普第一个敌人吗?”其中的一个问题是这样的:“万一特朗普真是一意孤行,宁可不利己也要损人呢?比如他真的把中国列为他在全球第一个要对付的国家,那么他会怎么做?我们应该怎么办?”

无独有偶,美国之音也热炒俄罗斯媒体的评论:“庆幸中国将成为美国的头号对手,能为克里姆林宫外交提供战略机会”。

法国媒体更为奇特,明明中国迄今为止仍没有成为美国目标,双方仍然保持着莫测的平静,却依然炒做中美发生新冷战之类的惊人之语。

不论英国、俄罗斯还是法国,他们的小九九中国也是心知肚明,希望中国成为美国的头号目标,既可以转移它们面对的美国压力,还能从中火中取栗。只不过剧本并没有按照它们期望的那样上演。或许永远也不会按照它们的希望上演。

虽然今天这一幕出乎世界列强的期待,但却是非常符合逻辑的。特朗普是美国人民把他推向总统宝座的,上任后自然要先聚焦内政问题。废除奥巴马医改、重新谈判石油管道建设、解决移民问题、取消庇护难民城市的联邦拨款、加强军备特别是海军建设、提名保守派大法官等诸如此类。

其次,则是要处理和美国关系最为紧密、利益也高度相关的盟国关系。比如会见英国首相、和加拿大、墨西哥重谈贸易协定、在墨西哥边境建墙、退出TPP、和澳大利亚总理怒谈难民接收问题。

等到这些问题处理完,才会轮到中国等其他国家。从正常的顺序上,中国都不是美国优先要面对的议题。

第三,特朗普就职后,风格依旧,用新加坡联和早报于泽远的评论就是:“特朗普不同于此前任何一位美国总统,”“其‘拳打国内体制、脚踢国外盟友’的架势有些类似中国文革时的造反派。文革带来了什么后果,中国人早已深有体会。如今,世界秩序的主要缔造者和维护者美国也出现了造反派。”

不管是特朗普CEO的风格来当总统,还是他缺乏经验,但后果就是内外一切乱了套。 国内外烧的一切忙乱,他自己自然也无法置身事外。这个时候,特朗普自然没有精力再去面对最为强大的中国。

第四,特朗普的政策多数受到了美国和西方主流势力的强烈反对和抗议。自从特朗普上台之后,美国就变成了一个抗议之国,游行之国,整个国家再也没有平静过。

自从特朗普上台之后,美国就变成了一个抗议之国。

不仅媒体一如既往的反对他,大量民众也走向街头甚至演变成暴力,民主党更是全力不合作,直到现在特朗普提名的内阁成员获得批准的都依然只是少数。体制内的专业官僚比如国务院上千名官员罕见的联名上书,反对特朗普的入境禁令。这一次司法也同样没有缺席对抗特朗普:联邦法官做出的暂停特朗普总统对7个穆斯林国家公民入境美国的禁令,认为这个禁令违反宪法。此前多个联邦法官已下令暂停把签证持有人递解出境。

这还只是国内,国外不管是传统盟国欧洲、澳大利亚、邻国加拿大、墨西哥还是一直密切合作的伊斯兰国家,都站到了美国的对立面。正在马耳他开会的欧盟各国元首们更是要求美国不要插手欧洲事务。与会的法国总统奥朗德干脆说:特朗普向欧盟施加的“压力”不可接受。

可以说,短短两周,特朗普基本上国内外都是声势汹涌的反对声浪,实已四面楚歌。如果特朗普不把这些挑战搞定——虽然我们不知道需要多久,他怎么可能有余心余力挑战中国呢?

第五,则是中国的实力,也令特朗普向中国发起挑战必须要三思而后行。这有四方面的含义。一是中国对美国经济的重要作用。根据2016年USBC的数据,仅仅一年,中美经济关系就帮助美国提供了260万个工作岗位,给美国GDP贡献了1.2%,更不用说保持了美国物价稳定,让每个家庭都节省了2850美元的开支。中国购买的巨额国债也弥补了美国的资金短缺。一旦双方发生对抗,失业率、通货膨胀、资金短缺都令此时仍在困境的美国想想都会冒冷汗。

二是中国的报复能力和承担代价的忍耐力。无论是贸易战还是货币战,肯定是两败俱伤。这在人类的历史上已经无数次证明的。但中国现行体制承受损害的能力要强于美国。比如,如果双方企业受损,肯定都要向政府申诉,但在美国,资本对政治的影响力是巨大的,甚至是决定性的——特朗普竞选时曾把批判的矛头指向华尔街,但胜选后其团队却大量吸纳华尔街的精英担任要职。而在中国,资本是永远不可能决定政治的。也就是说,打起贸易战,美国体制的承受能力要弱于中国。更何况,一旦影响到百姓生活水平,美国百姓会把责任归罪到特朗普政府,并在2018年的中期选举中进行惩罚。而在中国,百姓则会把责任归罪于挑起贸易大战的美国,反而增强了国内的团结和凝聚力。

三是有些经济规律特朗普作为商人并不是不懂,他选举时可以煽情,但当选后则必须正视规律。比如,2009年,美国借口增加就业,向中国进口的轮胎实施惩罚性关税。结果第二年,美国轮制造业的雇员减少了10%,所有利润都流向其他外国轮胎制造商手中,同时还给每个美国家庭增加了1.1%额外支出。中美则两败俱伤。因为在全球化时代,没有任何国家能够垄断市场,关键在于一个国家的实质竞争能力。如果美国的竞争能力弱,实施限制的结果只能是令其他国家获益。

再比如2011年在硅谷的一场晚宴上,时任美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马问史蒂夫·乔布斯,苹果怎样才会在美国雇用美国人生产iPhone。乔布斯以自己特有的直率回答道:“那些工作不会回来了。”事实上谁都明白,美国不可能再现二战后那样的制造业胜景。美国的技术进步和上升的劳动力成本不可能倒退回几十年前。而且全球化和市场规律也使得行政干预即时短期有效,但也不可持久。

所以,为了做秀,勒令几个企业在美国投资建厂是可以的,但要想把一个第三产业为主的国家重新扳回到制造业为主的经济结构是不可能的。

为了胜选,可以用中国当成经济规律的替罪羊,但执政后就需要正视经济规律,找到真正的解决办法。如果仍然迁怒于中国,不仅于事无补,还要承担巨额的损失。这样亏本的买卖特朗普怎么会干呢?

特朗普在选举期间屡次打出“中国牌”

四是特朗普要想让美国伟大起来,需要进行大规模的基础设施投资。无论是技术、资金还是效率,中国都是唯一的选择。除了内政,还有外交。伊朗、朝鲜、反恐等都需要中国的合作,

第六,由于自废武功,特朗普手中的牌并不多。过去美国可以打价值观牌、亚太盟友牌、欧洲盟友牌、TPP经贸牌、南海牌。但现在,特朗普不仅在价值观和经济利益上与欧洲盟友高度对立(比如他支持英国脱欧,批评德国的难民的政策,限制七个穆斯林国家入境等),就是亚太盟友如澳大利亚也是双方交恶。特别是特朗普主动放弃TPP,不仅把一张好牌扔掉,还极大的破坏了亚太盟友对美国的信任。现在除了屡被打脸的日本仍然对美国痴心不改,其他国家都在改弦易辙。即使美国仍然要打南海牌,已经没有一个国家愿意追随了。

两败俱伤的经贸牌轻易不敢打,剩下的只有台湾和西藏了。但一个中国原则特朗普说归说,他还真的是不敢否定,否则,中美关系的基础不复存在。到时双方的对抗就不仅是经贸层面了。

当然,有一点特朗普还是和传统政治人物不同。台湾是中国的核心利益,他用中国的利益去和中国交换,实在是无本生意。对于特朗普如此精明的商人而讲,他肯定是忍不住去做的,只不过是通过放弃台湾、支持统一来换取中国的巨额回报。也就是说,在特朗普执政期间,中国是有可能实现统一。

最后一个原因则是中国的高超外交技巧。在特朗普就任前,中国两位特殊背景的商人阿里巴巴的马运和中国安邦集团的吴小晖分别会见了特朗普和他的女婿库什纳。尤其是马云非常高调,并在会见后发出和他商人身份并不相符的、具有强烈外交色彩的声明:“我们认为中美关系应该加强——应该更加友好”,“讨论关系与贸易议题的门是打开的”。连续、高超的商业外交引发全球关注,以致各方发出“精明的中国商人是做政治生意的高手”感叹。

最出世人预料的是曾在竞选过程中大出风头、居功至伟的特朗普女儿伊万卡在中国驻美大使崔天凯的陪同下出席了中国大使馆的新年庆祝活动。考虑到伊万卡的夫婿是担任特朗普顾问的库什纳,其中的含意实在是丰富无比。

当然不仅商人和使馆,这场外交大戏还有中国的最高领导人。特朗普在胜选和在就职时都收到了习近平主席的贺电,这应该是中国迄今为止唯一的一次。而在他就职前接受华尔街日报采访时,特别展示了习近平主席发给他的圣诞新年贺卡:“主席寄了给我一张很漂亮的卡”。此前特朗普只如此展示过普京的圣诞贺信。

以上这些只不过是浮出水面的外交手腕,想信背后双方的沟通、博弈正以难以想象的程度进行着。

我们想信,以五千年的谋略智慧为底蕴,以空前的实力为后盾,重新占据全球化、自由贸易和气候变化道德高地的中国,与特朗普治下的美国打交道实在不是难事一桩。虽然我们现在还难以对未来的中美关系下结论,但是重现小布什时代中美关系的美好岁月还是相当可期的。


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